2020 Polling Is Pretty Much Useless at This Stage (Except for TV Ratings)
Tune out the pundits. Polls showing Trump in trouble mean almost nothing this far from Election Day.
Do the polls really show Donald Trump is headed for big trouble in his reelection campaign? That’s what you might think from watching coverage of early polls of the 2020 general election. In reality, though, it’s just too early to learn much from surveys testing how Trump would fare against various Democrats. Unfortunately, media reports frequently fail to convey this uncertainty, which may lead people to underestimate Trump’s chances.
How do you fill air time more than a year before the general election? One common approach is to engage in breathless hype around the so-called trial heat polls that pit Trump against potential Democratic opponents. Right now, they typically show Trump losing. For instance, a Quinnipiac University poll released last week found Trump trailing behind numerous Democrats, including Elizabeth Warren (by 7 points) and Joe Biden (by 13 points). These data were widely covered on cable news: MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow described them as “brutal for Donald Trump” and CNN’s Rosemary Church talked at length about the “commanding lead” Biden seems to hold.
