Any Democrat Could Beat Trump in a Landslide Right Now

The president has never looked weaker. So why is the left content with Biden?

David Walsh
GEN
Published in
5 min readMay 15, 2020

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Photo: The Washington Post/Getty Images

Absent massive electoral fraud, Joe Biden will very likely beat Donald Trump — and beat him pretty badly.

This has absolutely nothing to do with Joe Biden.

Biden’s campaign presence — even before he sealed up the nomination — can be charitably described as anemic. Even Biden’s campaign advisors have tried to keep him out of the public eye. He has been dogged by low voter enthusiasm, especially among young people. Most damagingly, Biden has been accused of sexual harassment and sexual assault by former staffer Tara Reade.

Nevertheless, Biden is in a strong structural position against Trump. Pundits, political consultants, and even activists tend to focus on voter enthusiasm, TV ads, social media campaigns, and get-out-the-vote ground games, but as Biden himself proved in the primary, a winning candidate does not necessarily need any of those things in order to win. And for all of Donald Trump’s supposed political genius, he is an incumbent president with a decidedly mixed record who is presiding over an economic catastrophe. This is not a structural situation that tends to lead to an incumbent’s reelection.

We can see this reflected in the polls. Biden has consistently led Donald Trump in head-to-head polls for months. A national Monmouth poll from the end of April has Biden at 50% to Trump’s 41%. Other polls tell a pretty consistent story. Biden is up by four points in the latest Economist/YouGov poll. A CBS poll has him up by six points.

Of course, Hilary Clinton also led Trump by similar margins in national polls — a May 2016 poll from CNN put her at a whopping 13-point lead. Clinton’s final popular vote tally was not only considerably narrower — she beat Trump by two points in November — but the national polls were ultimately irrelevant. Trump won through the Electoral College — the polls in swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida were what actually mattered.

Even in swing states, however, Biden looks strong. The former vice president was up three points in Wisconsin in March, and is running eight points ahead of Trump in…

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David Walsh
GEN
Writer for

David Austin Walsh is a PhD candidate at Princeton University. His dissertation is on the connections between the far right and the conservative movement.