‘Electability’ Polls Are Unreliable and Need to Stop
What you should know about the surveys stalking the 2020 election
Kamala Harris faced many challenges in her presidential campaign before ending it this month, including doubts that she was “electable.” She wasn’t alone.
Last month, the news cycle was awash with breathless commentary in the wake of a November 4 New York Times UpShot/Siena College poll, published under this provocative headline: “One Year From Election, Trump Trails Biden but Leads Warren in Battlegrounds.” The poll came out as Warren had been surging in the polls to a position challenging Biden’s front-runner status in the Democratic presidential primary for the first time. Twitter and TV exploded with dire warnings of a Trump second term should Warren, an unabashed “progressive,” become the Democratic Party’s nominee.
The problem with this conclusion is that it’s based on “electability” polls that are unreliable, leading to erroneous narratives that can make or break campaigns, especially for lesser-known candidates who also seek to break through gender or racial glass ceilings like Warren and Harris.
Horserace polling is replete with electability polls because the electability question is central in voters’ minds and, as such, is the type of data heavily prioritized…
