Fourth America is Almost Over — Americans Want a Divorce

Andrew Tanner
Published in
12 min readJul 16, 2021


The breakup of the United States is well underway, driven by the profit-driven poison of partisanship.

Bright Line Watch polling results by region. Question: “Would you support or oppose [your state] seceding from the United States to join a new union with [list of states in new union]?”

Since 2016, I have watched America’s slow march over a cliff with a mix of fascination and horror.

But the results of recent polls by Bright Line Watch have provided the first hard and frighteningly conclusive evidence that Americans are moving fast down the road I predicted—towards a national divorce.

I have unfortunately been right about almost every major development in America since Trump won the Republican Party nomination in 2016.

Like many observers, I didn’t take Trump’s campaign seriously at first. His first attempt at a campaign in 2012 collapsed before the first primary. The second defied every rule I had learned across a lifetime of observing and privately studying American politics. I assumed that the Republican Party leadership would find a way to block his ascension.

Turns out, I underestimated their craven cowardice and lust for power at any cost.

When he did win the GOP primary, I wound up devoting a substantial part of that summer — when I was supposed to be getting ready to write a doctoral dissertation — doing a deep dive into the polling data and assumptions being made by national political analysts.

And what I discovered terrified me: evidence of a systematic polling error that understated Trump’s appeal in Rust Belt states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Being just a lowly doctoral student, nobody was willing to listen to me when I tweeted to Hillary Clinton that she needed to camp out in Pennsylvania until the end of the election.

Then came that awful night in November when Americans around the country were shocked — but not me. I instead had real-world confirmation that I understood what was happening better than most experts.

Since then, I’ve been right so often it’s frankly painful — not that it has mattered.

I predicted that Trump’s tenure would start out in chaos but he would eventually surround himself with dangerous sycophants when mainstream pundits were telling Americans to “give Trump a chance.”