Is Hillary Setting Up for a 2024 Run?
She can win the nomination. She might not. But don’t for a minute think she can’t.
I’ve posted a couple of Hillary Clinton news items recently in the “Political Links” section, which appears near the end of each edition of the newsletter. My editorial slant on those items is that Mrs. Clinton is setting up a run for the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination.
A handful of subscribers have emailed to ask: “Are you kidding? Are those Clinton items some kind of inside joke?”
Email response: “No. I believe she is laying the groundwork for a 2024 presidential campaign. In the end, she may decide not to run. But she’d like to be ready in the event that she does.”
Reply: “You’re crazy.”
Reply all: “Maybe. Maybe not.”
Yesterday’s New York Times featured a story about how all Democratic elected officials everywhere at every level are united in their (a) support for President Biden’s renomination in 2024 and (b) certainty that he is their strongest candidate. For good measure, everyone pretends that he is a lock for re-election.
What the rest of the story implied was that Democratic Party big shots everywhere think Biden can’t possibly run for re-election in 2024 because he’s too old, that he would be a weak standard-bearer in the event that he did and that Kamala Harris is no one’s idea of a plausible Plan B.
All of which begs the question that has been hanging over Democratic Party politics since President Biden swore the oath of office on January 20, 2020: What is Plan B? The answer, initially, was: “Vice President Harris or a player to be named later.” The answer now is: “There isn’t one. Plan B is: jump ball.”
Democrats approach 2024 with some shared beliefs about the likely state of play. All think that former President Trump will be the GOP’s presidential nominee. All agree he will start the race at somewhere between 43% and 45% (nationally). All agree that at least 51% of the national electorate will vote against him. In the states that will decide the outcome in the Electoral College, all assume that Trump can do as well as he did in 2020, if not better. All of which means he has a shot at being…