GEN

A former publication from Medium about politics, power, and culture. Currently inactive and not…

Follow publication

Member-only story

The Return of Mercenaries, Non-State Conflict, and More Predictions for the Future of Warfare

Private armies were the norm in most of military history, and they’re making a big comeback

Sean McFate
GEN
Published in
8 min readJan 22, 2019

Credit: ilbusca/E+/Getty

EEverywhere around the world, the nature of war is changing, and the West is failing to adapt. Western powers are already losing on the margins to threats like Russia, China, and others that have made the leap forward and grow bolder each year. Eventually someone will test us and win.

The West has forgotten how to win wars because of their own strategic atrophy. Judging by how much money the United States invests in conventional weapons like the F-35, many in our country still believe that future interstate wars will be fought conventionally. But although Russia and China still buy conventional weapons, they use them in unconventional ways. China has armed its fishing fleet in the South China Sea, turning it into a floating militia. Russia gave T-72 tanks, truck-mounted rocket launchers, and howitzers to its mercenaries in Syria. Tellingly, Russia even cut its military budget by a whopping 20 percent in 2017, yet it shows no sign of curbing its global ambitions. Its leaders understand that war has moved beyond lethality.

Create an account to read the full story.

The author made this story available to Medium members only.
If you’re new to Medium, create a new account to read this story on us.

Or, continue in mobile web

Already have an account? Sign in

GEN
GEN

Published in GEN

A former publication from Medium about politics, power, and culture. Currently inactive and not taking submissions.

Sean McFate
Sean McFate

Written by Sean McFate

Author, novelist and foreign policy expert. His latest book THE NEW RULES OF WAR asks why we no longer win wars, and then explains how we can. seanmcfate.com

Responses (19)

Write a response

I hope you’re wrong, but I fear you are more right and that I find scary and frightening. If true we are, as a species, de-evolving rather than evolving. In the context of the 21st century I am not as surprised as disheartened. Our species possesses…

22

When money can buy firepower, then the super-rich will become a new kind of superpower, and this will change everything.

The foundations for this are evident.

20

Sorry to put it so blunt, but: this scares the shit out of me. We all know the world is unsustainable as it is right now; we all know that change is coming. But the idea that it will become a battleground for the super-rich, while the government…

6