Americans Have Collective Amnesia Around Polling
‘Polls are not prophesies’ and other things we refuse to learn
For many, the shock of Donald Trump’s upset victory in 2016 still hangs over this presidential election. Though polls suggest Joe Biden has a decent lead over Trump, plenty of people question whether it’s wise to listen to such forecasting in the first place. But such questions ignore a perhaps uncomfortable truth: that polling has never been perfect. As American University professor W. Joseph Campbell details in his new book, Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections, polling has a “checkered history” in U.S. elections due to a variety of factors, including inconsistent statewide polls and untrustworthy exit polling. Yet polling remains a major piece of our election experience. “Opinion polls will drive the election narrative for the news media in 2020,” Campbell writes, “much as they have in most presidential elections since 1936.”
Campbell spoke with GEN about our short memory when it comes to forecasting flubs and how we might use social media to improve the polling process.
GEN: Lost in a Gallup runs through many of the major polling errors of the last 80-plus years: the Chicago Daily Tribune’s infamous “Dewey Defeats Truman” headline, Jimmy Carter’s perceived lead over Ronald…
